Released on September 24, 2024
Province Would Face Royalty and Tax Revenue Losses up to $7 Billion, Lost Government Revenues of $43 Billion, and up to 34,000 Job Losses by 2050, According to Independent Report
In its new independent report, the Saskatchewan Economic Impact Assessment Tribunal has found that the federal oil and gas emissions cap and federal Methane 75 regulations would cause substantial economic damage to Saskatchewan.
By 2050, with production caps and methane mandates in place, Saskatchewan's oil production would fall by between 38 and 52 per cent, the province would face cumulative royalty and tax revenue losses of between $4.8 and $7.1 billion, and total lost government revenues would be up to $43.3 billion, according to the independent Report.
"The Tribunal has, in several cases, relied on the same experts as the federal government and presented undeniable, quantitative data that these two federal mandates would be economically devastating to Saskatchewan," Justice Minister and Attorney General Bronwyn Eyre said. “These mandates will lead to industrial winners and losers across the country and represent a sweeping constitutional overreach into the province's exclusive jurisdiction over natural resources. This report arms us with additional, independent evidence to constitutionally challenge the two mandates."
The Report also found that, with these federal mandates in place, Saskatchewan’s economy would contract by 4.3 per cent by 2030, by 6.4 per cent by 2050, and that there would be a cumulative GDP impact by 2050 of $230 billion. Employment losses by 2050, relative to the status quo, would range from between 12,800 and 34,000 people.
"The Explorers and Producers Association of Canada (EPAC) remains fundamentally opposed to the imposition of a federal emissions cap on Canadian oil and gas production," EPAC President and CEO Tristan Goodman said. "This is unnecessary and unacceptable given Canadian producers' ongoing efforts to reduce emissions. A federal emissions cap will introduce further investment uncertainty and has a likelihood of being found unconstitutional as seen in recent Supreme Court decisions. EPAC supports the goal of reducing methane emissions from the oil and gas sector and we believe this is strictly provincial jurisdiction. We look forward to working with the province of Saskatchewan to achieve their methane emissions reduction target. Federal intervention is not required."
These two mandates will also not reduce any global emissions, according to the Report, and production cuts in Canada will simply be back-filled by jurisdictions with weaker environmental standards. Between 2015 and 2023, provincially-regulated methane emissions in Saskatchewan fell by two-thirds.
The Economic Impact Assessment Tribunal conducted its analysis and developed this report under the authority of The Saskatchewan First Act, which came into force in September 15, 2023. The Report was released yesterday and can be accessed within the background documents at the bottom of this page.
Additional information about the Economic Impact Assessment Tribunal can be found at:
https://www.saskatchewan.ca/government/news-and-media/2024/april/08/media-advisory.
The Government of Saskatchewan would like to thank the Economic Assessment Tribunal for its independent, in-depth report. Members of the Tribunal are as follows:
• Michael W. Milani (Chair);
• Dr. Janice MacKinnon (Vice-Chair);
• Kenneth From;
• Dr. Stuart Smyth; and
• Estella Petersen.
- Michael Milani, KC (Chair) is a senior partner (commercial and insolvency) at McDougall Gauley in Regina. Mr. Milani has previously served as Estey Chair in Business Law at the University of Saskatchewan's College of Law, as President of the Law Society and Federation of Law Societies of Canada, and is the current Chair of the Law Reform Commission of Saskatchewan. In a legal capacity, he has undertaken various green energy projects for SaskPower, including negotiating power purchase agreements for wind and solar energy, as well as agreements for the engineering, procurement and construction of combined cycle gas plants.
- Dr. Janice MacKinnon (Vice-Chair) is a fellow of the Royal Society of Canada, member of the Order of Canada, and former Saskatchewan Finance Minister. In 2017, she was appointed to the federal advisory panel on NAFTA and the Environment and, in 2019, was appointed by former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney to chair the Blue Ribbon panel on Alberta's finances. She is a Professor of fiscal policy at the School of Public Health at the University of Saskatchewan and a senior fellow and member of the National Council at the C.D Howe Institute.
- Kenneth From is the former President and CEO of SaskEnergy. He is also a former CEO of the Petroleum Technology Research Centre (PTRC) and the Technical Safety Authority of Saskatchewan (TSASK). Mr. From also previously served as an officer and director of Raven Oil Corporation from 2012-2016 and as President of Prairie Hunter Energy Corporation. A professional engineer, he was President (2003-2004) of the Association of Professional Engineers and Geoscientists of Saskatchewan (APEGS).
- Dr. Stuart Smyth is a professor at the University of Saskatchewan in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics. His research focuses on sustainability, agriculture and innovation. As U of S Agri-Food Innovation and Sustainability Enhancement Chair, Dr. Smyth has published over 100 academic articles and is recognized as a leading expert on barriers to innovation and regulatory efficiency.
- Estella Peterson is an oil sands heavy equipment operator in Fort McMurray, AB. Originally from Saskatchewan and Treaty 4 Cowesess First Nation, Estella is part of Suncor Energy's Aboriginal Ambassador program and is a freelance contributor, including to The Globe and Mail, on the economic importance of the natural resources sector to Indigenous communities.
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