History of Drought Impacts in Saskatchewan

The occurrence of droughts or extreme dry conditions and prolonged wet periods often leads to serious impacts to a region’s natural environment, economy and society. Persistent droughts are among the high-priced natural disasters due to their significant impacts on agriculture, industry, human health and society. Although many areas in Canada periodically experience drought, western regions in the rain-shallow of the Rocky Mountains are more susceptible to drought because of their naturally high precipitation variability and distance from the ocean. In the past two centuries, the Prairie region has experienced multi-year droughts since the historical records started in the 1880s.

In the early 1600s, late 1700s and mid-1800s, analyses of historical proxy data from tree-rings and lake sediment cores suggest severe and prolong droughts occurred in these periods. The super-droughts featured a dry and continental-type climate, and thus suggest future drought events of similar magnitude are likely to happen in Saskatchewan.

Between 1917 and 1926, southern Saskatchewan experienced severe drought for six years. This was followed by the “Dust Bowl” conditions of 1929-37, which gave rise to the most destructive prairie drought during the periods of 20^th century. In 1961, the province recorded another drought with 45 per cent of normal precipitation. According to scientists, these droughts were relatively moderate and short-lived compared to previous centuries. Matching the 1930s drought were the late 1980s, which had very extreme dry and warm conditions. The 1988 southern Saskatchewan drought received 50 per cent precipitation and was recorded as one of the hottest summers ever. However, the impacts of the drought in 1980s were less because of improved soil conservation methods, new and different crop varieties which performed better in dry conditions, better economic conditions and government programs.

The social and economic impacts of droughts in the province can be severe. Drought threatens wetlands and waterfalls, diminishes water supplies, reduces crop yields, increases the risk of forest fires and disrupt livestock production. Due to the importance of agriculture in Saskatchewan, economic losses from drought are very significant. According to a report in 1961, Saskatchewan lost about $668 million in prairie wheat production when the province had its worst drought year. Between 1986-88, the Canadian agriculture lost $4 billion in grain exports (Environment Canda, 1992).

Between 1999 and 2005, the prairies experienced another drought, which was extreme compared to the historical instrumental record, and most severe on record at the same location (Bonsal and Regier, 2007). Compared with these drought events, the drought experienced during eight consecutive seasons from September 2000 to August 2002 was the most severe drought on record. During these periods, Saskatchewan crop yields and harvested acres were below average in both 2001 and 2002, resulting in a $3.6-billion drop in agricultural production. Nationally, the drought was considered one of Canada’s worst natural disasters and caused the Canadian economy to lose $5.8 billion in 2001 and 2002 (Wheaton et al., 2008).

The severe drought during the 1980s led to an era of ad hoc programs for farmers. Programs that existed in the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s covered crop yield loss, livestock feed, water shortage, conservation planning, financial counselling and interest-free loans. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) began administering the Federal Tax Deferral Program for farmers who were forced to sell breeding stock due to drought.

In 2010, the west central and northwest regions in Saskatchewan experienced extreme dry conditions which resulted in delayed pasture development and declined crop production. According to Statistics Canada data, Saskatchewan crop production plummeted from 30 million metric tonnes to 23 million metric tonnes, down 23 per cent from the prior year. Similarly, harvested acres declined by four million compared to 2009. According to a report by the Pasture Recovery Initiative, more than 2.2 million breeding animals (horses, beef cattle, bison, elk, deer, llamas, sheep and goats) were affected. Program payments including crop insurance, private hail insurance, AgriStability, AgriInvest and other payments increased by $450 million to $911 million.

While the province has recently been in a wet cycle, localized dry conditions have occurred in the past few years. During the growing season of 2018, a large area of the southwest region experienced less precipitation leading to reduced crop yields and dry pasture conditions.

In 2021, Saskatchewan experienced another drought where southern, and some eastern regions of the province, were either short or extremely short on moisture entering freeze up.

Crop and private hail insurance, AgriStability, AgriInvest and other payments were up 241 per cent compared to the prior year, with crop and private hail insurance increased by $1.4 billion in 2021 (Statistics Canada).  The data from Statistics Canada show that crop production fell by a record high 44 per cent year-over-year in 2021. The 2021 crop was the smallest crop on record since 2003, due to the drought-induced decreases. Oats, canola and wheat fell 50 per cent, 38 per cent and 42 per cent respectively, while durum was down by 54 per cent.

The main impact of drought on the agricultural industry is reduced yields on cultivated lands, hay land and pasture. Lower yields translate to lower income for producers. However, the impact can be more widespread than yield losses, and can include higher cost of feed; increased risk of grass fires; cattle losses due to poor water quality, ranchers being forced to sell cattle due to lack of water or forage; and a reduction in suppliers profit due to a lower spending on inputs by producers. 

The figure below shows the crop production in Saskatchewan with the drought year in red colour, and more detailed information can be found on Canada’s Historic drought animation.

References

Environment Canada. 1992. Drought: Fact Sheet. Downsview: Atmospheric Environment Service; Fung, K.I (ed). 1999. Atlas of Saskatchewan. Saskatoon: University of Saskatchewan.

Wheaton, E., Kulshreshtha, S., Wittrock, V., & Koshida, G. (2008). Dry times: hard lessons from the Canadian drought of 2001 and 2002. The Canadian Geographer/Le Géographe canadien, 52(2), 241-262.

Bonsal, B., & Regier, M. (2007). Historical comparison of the 2001/2002 drought in the Canadian Prairies. Climate Research, 33(3), 229-242.